Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

Carla Sturm • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 29, 2025


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.


With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.


While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.


In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.


Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.


Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.


The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.


CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.


With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.


The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.


Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report


Carla Sturm
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Breaking Down the Real Costs of Homeownership

By Carla Sturm • July 1, 2026
Don’t Forget About Closing Costs When planning to buy a home, most people focus on saving for the down payment. But the truth is, that’s only part of the equation. To actually finalize the purchase, you’ll also need to budget for closing costs —the out-of-pocket expenses that come up before you get the keys. Closing costs can add up quickly, which is why they should be part of your pre-approval conversation right from the start. Lenders will even require proof that you’ve got enough funds set aside. For example, if you’re getting an insured (high-ratio) mortgage, you’ll need at least 1.5% of the purchase price available in addition to your down payment. That means a 10% down payment actually requires 11.5% of the purchase price in cash to make everything work. Let’s break down some of the most common expenses you should prepare for: 1. Home Inspection & Appraisal Inspection : Paid by you, this gives peace of mind that the property is in good shape and doesn’t have hidden problems. Appraisal : Required by the lender to confirm value. Sometimes this is covered by mortgage insurance, sometimes by you. 2. Legal Fees A lawyer or notary is required to handle the title transfer and make sure the mortgage is properly registered. Legal fees are often one of the larger closing costs—unless you’re also responsible for property transfer tax. 3. Taxes Many provinces charge a property or land transfer tax based on the home’s purchase price. These fees can range from hundreds to thousands of dollars, so you’ll want to factor them in early. 4. Insurance Property insurance is mandatory—lenders won’t release funds without proof that the home is insured on closing day. Optional coverage like mortgage life, disability, or critical illness insurance may also be worth considering depending on your financial plan. 5. Moving Costs Whether you’re renting a truck, hiring movers, or bribing friends with pizza and gas money, moving comes with expenses. Cross-country moves especially can be surprisingly pricey. 6. Utilities & Deposits Setting up new services (electricity, water, internet) can involve connection fees or deposits, particularly if you don’t already have a payment history with the utility provider. Plan Ahead, Stress Less This list covers the big-ticket items, but every purchase is unique. That’s why it pays to have an accurate estimate of your personal closing costs before you make an offer. If you’d like help planning ahead—or want a breakdown tailored to your situation—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk you through the numbers and make sure you’re fully prepared.

What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You

By Carla Sturm • June 24, 2026
What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You Online mortgage calculators are everywhere—and on the surface, they seem like a no-brainer. You plug in some numbers, and out pops what you can “afford.” Simple, right? Not quite. While the math itself is correct, the story behind those numbers is often misleading. Mortgage qualification isn’t just about numbers—it’s about context, risk, and lender policy. And that’s where calculators fall short. The Numbers Are Accurate—but the Picture Isn’t An online calculator can show you what a payment might look like at a given interest rate, or how making extra payments could reduce your amortization. That’s useful information! But when it comes to mortgage qualification , calculators don’t account for the many variables that lenders consider, such as: Your credit history and score Employment type (salary, self-employed, contract) Outstanding debts and monthly obligations Assets, savings, and down payment source The property type and location you’re buying Lenders evaluate all these factors through their internal risk models. That means two people entering the exact same numbers into a calculator could receive very different results when they actually apply for a mortgage. Why Online Calculators Can Mislead You When you see a “How much can I afford?” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator online, it’s easy to treat the result as fact. But these tools don’t know your financial story—they only crunch the data you enter. A calculator can’t predict how a lender views your risk, how new mortgage rules apply to your file, or how things like spousal support, car loans, or variable income will impact approval. In short: calculators estimate payments, not qualification . Use Calculators the Right Way Don’t get us wrong—online calculators still have value. Use them to explore different “what-if” scenarios: How do payments change with different down payment amounts? How would a rate increase affect affordability? What if you added $100 a month to your payments? These tools are great for helping you understand your comfort zone. Just remember: they’re a starting point, not a green light. The Real First Step: Get a Pre-Approval If you’re serious about buying a home, skip the guesswork and get a mortgage pre-approval . It’s quick, free, and gives you real-world clarity on what you can afford. A pre-approval looks at your full financial picture—income, credit, debts, assets—and provides a framework for your purchase price, payment range, and rate options. It’s the only way to get a reliable answer to the question, “What can I really afford?” Final Thoughts Online calculators are convenient, but they can’t replace expert advice. Think of them as a starting point, not a solution. A professional mortgage broker can interpret the numbers, navigate lender policies, and tailor your financing strategy to your actual situation. If you’d like help understanding your true buying power—or want to get pre-approved with confidence— reach out anytime . I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you make sense of the numbers.