Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 29th, 2025

Carla Sturm • January 29, 2025

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, announces end of quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

January 29, 2025


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.2


Projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published today are subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the threat of trade tariffs by the new administration in the United States. Since the scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast in the absence of new tariffs.


In the MPR projection, the global economy is expected to continue growing by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised up, mainly due to stronger consumption. Growth in the euro area is likely to be subdued as the region copes with competitiveness pressures. In China, recent policy actions are boosting demand and supporting near-term growth, although structural challenges remain. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries. US bond yields have risen, supported by strong growth and more persistent inflation. In contrast, yields in Canada are down slightly. The Canadian dollar has depreciated materially against the US dollar, largely reflecting trade uncertainty and broader strength in the US currency. Oil prices have been volatile and in recent weeks have been about $5 higher than was assumed in the October MPR.


In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy. The recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak. The outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.


Canada’s labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.


The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth because of reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than was expected in October. Following growth of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.


CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected. A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2%. The Bank forecasts CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.


Setting aside threatened US tariffs, the upside and downside risks around the outlook are reasonably balanced. However, as discussed in the MPR, a protracted trade conflict would most likely lead to weaker GDP and higher prices in Canada.


With inflation around 2% and the economy in excess supply, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to 3%. The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial. Lower interest rates are boosting household spending and, in the outlook published today, the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested. We will be following developments closely and assessing the implications for economic activity, inflation and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.


Information note


The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 12, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 16, 2025.


Footnotes

  1. 1. Effective January 30, the deposit rate will be set at 5 basis points below the Bank’s policy interest rate to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. For more details, see the market notice published simultaneously with this press release.[←]
  2. 2. A market notice published simultaneously with this press release provides operational details.[←]


Read the January 29th, 2025 Monetary Report.


Carla Sturm
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Breaking Down the Real Costs of Homeownership

By Carla Sturm • July 1, 2026
Don’t Forget About Closing Costs When planning to buy a home, most people focus on saving for the down payment. But the truth is, that’s only part of the equation. To actually finalize the purchase, you’ll also need to budget for closing costs —the out-of-pocket expenses that come up before you get the keys. Closing costs can add up quickly, which is why they should be part of your pre-approval conversation right from the start. Lenders will even require proof that you’ve got enough funds set aside. For example, if you’re getting an insured (high-ratio) mortgage, you’ll need at least 1.5% of the purchase price available in addition to your down payment. That means a 10% down payment actually requires 11.5% of the purchase price in cash to make everything work. Let’s break down some of the most common expenses you should prepare for: 1. Home Inspection & Appraisal Inspection : Paid by you, this gives peace of mind that the property is in good shape and doesn’t have hidden problems. Appraisal : Required by the lender to confirm value. Sometimes this is covered by mortgage insurance, sometimes by you. 2. Legal Fees A lawyer or notary is required to handle the title transfer and make sure the mortgage is properly registered. Legal fees are often one of the larger closing costs—unless you’re also responsible for property transfer tax. 3. Taxes Many provinces charge a property or land transfer tax based on the home’s purchase price. These fees can range from hundreds to thousands of dollars, so you’ll want to factor them in early. 4. Insurance Property insurance is mandatory—lenders won’t release funds without proof that the home is insured on closing day. Optional coverage like mortgage life, disability, or critical illness insurance may also be worth considering depending on your financial plan. 5. Moving Costs Whether you’re renting a truck, hiring movers, or bribing friends with pizza and gas money, moving comes with expenses. Cross-country moves especially can be surprisingly pricey. 6. Utilities & Deposits Setting up new services (electricity, water, internet) can involve connection fees or deposits, particularly if you don’t already have a payment history with the utility provider. Plan Ahead, Stress Less This list covers the big-ticket items, but every purchase is unique. That’s why it pays to have an accurate estimate of your personal closing costs before you make an offer. If you’d like help planning ahead—or want a breakdown tailored to your situation—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk you through the numbers and make sure you’re fully prepared.

What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You

By Carla Sturm • June 24, 2026
What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You Online mortgage calculators are everywhere—and on the surface, they seem like a no-brainer. You plug in some numbers, and out pops what you can “afford.” Simple, right? Not quite. While the math itself is correct, the story behind those numbers is often misleading. Mortgage qualification isn’t just about numbers—it’s about context, risk, and lender policy. And that’s where calculators fall short. The Numbers Are Accurate—but the Picture Isn’t An online calculator can show you what a payment might look like at a given interest rate, or how making extra payments could reduce your amortization. That’s useful information! But when it comes to mortgage qualification , calculators don’t account for the many variables that lenders consider, such as: Your credit history and score Employment type (salary, self-employed, contract) Outstanding debts and monthly obligations Assets, savings, and down payment source The property type and location you’re buying Lenders evaluate all these factors through their internal risk models. That means two people entering the exact same numbers into a calculator could receive very different results when they actually apply for a mortgage. Why Online Calculators Can Mislead You When you see a “How much can I afford?” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator online, it’s easy to treat the result as fact. But these tools don’t know your financial story—they only crunch the data you enter. A calculator can’t predict how a lender views your risk, how new mortgage rules apply to your file, or how things like spousal support, car loans, or variable income will impact approval. In short: calculators estimate payments, not qualification . Use Calculators the Right Way Don’t get us wrong—online calculators still have value. Use them to explore different “what-if” scenarios: How do payments change with different down payment amounts? How would a rate increase affect affordability? What if you added $100 a month to your payments? These tools are great for helping you understand your comfort zone. Just remember: they’re a starting point, not a green light. The Real First Step: Get a Pre-Approval If you’re serious about buying a home, skip the guesswork and get a mortgage pre-approval . It’s quick, free, and gives you real-world clarity on what you can afford. A pre-approval looks at your full financial picture—income, credit, debts, assets—and provides a framework for your purchase price, payment range, and rate options. It’s the only way to get a reliable answer to the question, “What can I really afford?” Final Thoughts Online calculators are convenient, but they can’t replace expert advice. Think of them as a starting point, not a solution. A professional mortgage broker can interpret the numbers, navigate lender policies, and tailor your financing strategy to your actual situation. If you’d like help understanding your true buying power—or want to get pre-approved with confidence— reach out anytime . I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you make sense of the numbers.